OIL TUMBLES, YIELDS RISE; EXIT POLLS IN FOCUS AT HOME

OIL TUMBLES, YIELDS RISE; EXIT POLLS IN FOCUS AT HOME
WORLD MARKETS                             
Dow and S & P 500 fell 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, extending the losing streak to third straight day, amid sharp fall in oil and strong employment data. Nasdaq managed to end 0.1% higher.
US crude fell 5.4% to $50.28, posting its worst single-day fall in 13 months, and Brent plunged 5% to $53.11 a barrel after U.S. crude inventories surged to a record high at an increase of 8.2 million barrels last week, compared with the consensus expectation for a 2 million barrels.
Data from ADP and Moody’s showed private sector added 298,000 jobs last month, well above an estimate of 190,000. Fourth-quarter productivity remained unrevised at a gain of 1.3%. Wholesale inventories fell 0.2%, more than expected.
Treasury yield rose following the ADP data, with the benchmark 10-year yield at 2.556%, hitting its highest level since December and the two-year note yield reaching 1.354%, levels not seen since 2009. Dollar index rose 0.3% to 102.12.
Earlier China unexpectedly posted its first trade deficit in three years for February, as a construction boom pushed imports up 38.1% in dollar-denominated terms as exports fell 1.3%.
European markets, except a marginally lower FTSE, ended modestly higher.
AT HOME
After a flattish start, benchmark indices fell about six tenth of a percent in the morning session but recouped half of the losses later to end lower by about three tenth of a percent, extending the losing streak to second straight day. Sensex lost 98 points to settle at 28902 while Nifty finished at 8924, down 23 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. BSE Metal and Realty indices were the top losers among the sectoral indices, giving away 1.9% and 1.4% respectively while Healthcare index and Bankex were the top gainers, up 0.2% each.
FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 3573 cr which included Rs 2274 on account of Kotak Mahindra deal. They net bought index futures worth Rs 292 cr but net sold stock futures worth Rs 1200 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1735 cr.
Rupee depreciated 3 paise to end at 66.70/$.
OUTLOOK
China’s February CPI is up 7.8% as against expectation of 7.7%, marking the fastest pace since September 2008. CPI is up 0.8% as against expectation of 1.7%.
Except a 0.3% higher Nikkei, other Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.4%-0.7% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 points lower start for our market.
As we have been mentioning 8970-8860 is the immediate range, a decisive crossover of which, on either side, is required for taking a fresh directional view.
That continues to be the view. Upon decisive crossover of 8970, next target to eye would be 9119, the top made in March 2015. Below 8860, 34-DMA, placed around 8760, would be the downside target.
All eyes will be on the exit polls for the assembly elections held in five states including UP, that will be released at 5.30 pm today.

Second half of the budget session of Parliament begins today.
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STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9115

STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9115

WORLD MARKETS

Dow and S & P 500 fell 0.3% and 0.2% respectively while Nasdaq lost 0.04% on Friday.

Personal income rose 0.4% in February, in line with expectations, while consumer spending rose 0.1%, below an expected increase of 0.2%. The PCE price index — an indicator of inflation — rose 2.1% y-o-y, while core PCE increased 1.8%. The Chicago manufacturing PMI rose to 57.7 in March from 57.4 in February. Consumer sentiment hit 96.9 versus an expected read of 97.6.

European markets, except a 0.6% lower FTSE, gained 0.5%-0.6%. U.K. released its latest gross domestic product (GDP) figures which showed growth of 0.7 percent for the quarter and 1.9 percent compared to the year previous. The European Union published its draft of Brexit negotiating guidelines on Friday which showed the bloc is ready to discuss a potential free trade deal with Britain before the two sides have agreed on the final terms of the break-up.
U.S. President Trump said that the U.S. will take unilateral action to eliminate nuclear threats from North Korea, unless China, one of North Korea’s closest ally, intensifies pressure on it. These comments come ahead of a two-day meeting this week in Florida with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

For the week, US indices gained 0.3%-1.4%.  In Europe, FTSE fell 0.2% but DAX and CAC climbed 2% each. Asian markets ended in red with Nikkei down 1.8%, Shanghai off -1.4% and Hang Seng lower by 1%. Indian markets however gained 0.7%.

                                                             

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended little changed after a ragebound but choppy trade on the last day of the fiscal year. Sensex settled at 29620, down 27 points while Nifty ended absolutely flat at 9174. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however climbed 0.8% and 0.7% respectively. BSE Energy index soared 2.5%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.8% rise in Oil & Gas index. Telecom index and Bankex were the top losers, down 0.9% and 0.7% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 296 cr and 304 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 68 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1499 cr.

Rupee ended flat at 65.0950/$.
For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 0.7% each with Nifty closing at fresh record high on weekly basis.

For the fiscal 2017, Sensex and Nifty gained 16.9% and 18.6% respectively.

Government lowered interest rates on small saving schemes like PPF, Kisan Vikas Patra and Sukanya Samriddhi scheme by 0.1% for the April-June quarter.

The union cabinet on Friday approved changes to the companies and motor vehicle bills. It also fixed subsidy rates for phosphatic and potassic fertilisers and approved a plan to boost domestic urea production. Separately, the cabinet committee on economic affairs cleared changes to the Mega Power Policy.

The amended motor vehicle bill proposes a hefty penalty on auto companies caught manufacturing faulty vehicles, statuary guidelines for cab aggregators and a 10% annual increase in penalty for traffic violations.  The government has also proposed specific timelines for processing insurance claim.

Cabinet approved amendment to New Urea Policy-2015, allowing for production beyond the re-assessed capacity, which is expected to push domestic production of this key fertiliser. The subsidy for Phosphatic and Potassic nutrients has been lowered while that for Nitrogen and Sulphur has been raised.

The changes to the mega power policy will benefit 24 plants of 30,000-mw capacity to the tune of more than Rs 10,000 crore.
Maruti reported 8.1% rise in March sales at 1.39 lac units. Eicher Motors’s Royeal Enfield sales were up 17% at 60113 units and CV sales rose 8.5% to 7327 units. M & M tractor sales were up 32% at 19337 units while total sales were up 6% at 56031 units. SML Isuzu saw 26.4% growth at 2094 units.

Oil marketing companies cut petrol and diesel price by Rs 3.77 and 2.91 a liter, marking the first change in rates in two-and-a-half months.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.2%-0.4% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points higher start for our market.

Just to reiterate, we have been working with target of 9218 after immediate hurdle of 9130 was taken out. The benchmark touched a high of 9192 but closed at 9174 and is set to open higher today.

9218, the top made on 17th March, continues to be immediate hurdle, upon decisive crossover of which, 9400-9420 would be the next major target to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 9115, with the stop-loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

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  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9115
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9115
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
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