NIFTY FAILS TO CROSS 8970 HURDLE YET AGAIN; 8860 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

NIFTY FAILS TO CROSS 8970 HURDLE YET AGAIN; 8860 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT
WORLD MARKETS                             
US indices fell 0.1%-0.3% amid rising geopolitical tension, prospects of higher interest rates in the US and the House Republicans legislation to repeal and replace Obamacare. Dow and S & P 500 recorded their first two-day losing streak since January.
The first components of a U.S.-deployed Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system arrived in South Korea. The deployment of the system drew strong rebuke from China.
The GOP health care proposal includes killing the requirement that most Americans must have health insurance or pay a fine, among other changes.
The U.S. trade deficit jumped in January to the highest level in nearly five years to $48.5 billion.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose to around 2.51%.
US crude fell 0.1% to $53.14 and Brent was down 0.2% at $55.92. American Petroleum Institute data showed that U.S. crude stocks rose 11.6 million barrels last week, more than five times analyst’s forecasts.
In Europe, FTSE and CAC fell 0.2% and 0.4% respectively while DAX and Italy gained marginally. U.K. house price growth cooled to its weakest level since 2013. German industrial orders dropped by 7.4% in January, the biggest fall since 2009.
Japan’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product was revised up to 1.2% from the preliminary figure of 1%, as capital expenditure grew at its fastest pace in three years.
AT HOME
After a flattish start, benchmark indices saw a gradual downward drift through the session to end with modest cuts. Sensex lost 49 points to settle at 29000 while Nifty finished at 8947, down 17 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however managed to end 0.14% and 0.03% higher. BSE Metal index tumbled 1.8%, becoming top loser among the sectoral indices, followed by 0.8% cut in Basic Materials index. Oil & Gas and Consumer Durable indices were the top gainers, up 0.4% each.
FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 920 cr and 66 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 1764 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1074 cr.
Rupee appreciated 5 paise to end at 66.67/$.
OUTLOOK
Today morning Asian markets are trading with cuts of upto 0.7% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 15 points lower start for our market.
As we have been mentioning, 8970, the top made in September 2016, is the important resistance, a decisive crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove.
The benchmark, after touching a high of 8978 in the opening trade, slipped to end at 8947, failing to cross this hurdle once again.
Upon decisive crossover of 8970, next immediate target to eye would be 9119, the top made in March 2015. 8860, the bottom made last week, which also coincides with 20-DMA, continues to be immediate support.

Traders are advised to wait for the decisive breach of 8860-8970 range on either side for taking a fresh directional view on Nifty.
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STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9115

STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9115

WORLD MARKETS

Dow and S & P 500 fell 0.3% and 0.2% respectively while Nasdaq lost 0.04% on Friday.

Personal income rose 0.4% in February, in line with expectations, while consumer spending rose 0.1%, below an expected increase of 0.2%. The PCE price index — an indicator of inflation — rose 2.1% y-o-y, while core PCE increased 1.8%. The Chicago manufacturing PMI rose to 57.7 in March from 57.4 in February. Consumer sentiment hit 96.9 versus an expected read of 97.6.

European markets, except a 0.6% lower FTSE, gained 0.5%-0.6%. U.K. released its latest gross domestic product (GDP) figures which showed growth of 0.7 percent for the quarter and 1.9 percent compared to the year previous. The European Union published its draft of Brexit negotiating guidelines on Friday which showed the bloc is ready to discuss a potential free trade deal with Britain before the two sides have agreed on the final terms of the break-up.
U.S. President Trump said that the U.S. will take unilateral action to eliminate nuclear threats from North Korea, unless China, one of North Korea’s closest ally, intensifies pressure on it. These comments come ahead of a two-day meeting this week in Florida with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

For the week, US indices gained 0.3%-1.4%.  In Europe, FTSE fell 0.2% but DAX and CAC climbed 2% each. Asian markets ended in red with Nikkei down 1.8%, Shanghai off -1.4% and Hang Seng lower by 1%. Indian markets however gained 0.7%.

                                                             

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended little changed after a ragebound but choppy trade on the last day of the fiscal year. Sensex settled at 29620, down 27 points while Nifty ended absolutely flat at 9174. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however climbed 0.8% and 0.7% respectively. BSE Energy index soared 2.5%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.8% rise in Oil & Gas index. Telecom index and Bankex were the top losers, down 0.9% and 0.7% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 296 cr and 304 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 68 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1499 cr.

Rupee ended flat at 65.0950/$.
For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 0.7% each with Nifty closing at fresh record high on weekly basis.

For the fiscal 2017, Sensex and Nifty gained 16.9% and 18.6% respectively.

Government lowered interest rates on small saving schemes like PPF, Kisan Vikas Patra and Sukanya Samriddhi scheme by 0.1% for the April-June quarter.

The union cabinet on Friday approved changes to the companies and motor vehicle bills. It also fixed subsidy rates for phosphatic and potassic fertilisers and approved a plan to boost domestic urea production. Separately, the cabinet committee on economic affairs cleared changes to the Mega Power Policy.

The amended motor vehicle bill proposes a hefty penalty on auto companies caught manufacturing faulty vehicles, statuary guidelines for cab aggregators and a 10% annual increase in penalty for traffic violations.  The government has also proposed specific timelines for processing insurance claim.

Cabinet approved amendment to New Urea Policy-2015, allowing for production beyond the re-assessed capacity, which is expected to push domestic production of this key fertiliser. The subsidy for Phosphatic and Potassic nutrients has been lowered while that for Nitrogen and Sulphur has been raised.

The changes to the mega power policy will benefit 24 plants of 30,000-mw capacity to the tune of more than Rs 10,000 crore.
Maruti reported 8.1% rise in March sales at 1.39 lac units. Eicher Motors’s Royeal Enfield sales were up 17% at 60113 units and CV sales rose 8.5% to 7327 units. M & M tractor sales were up 32% at 19337 units while total sales were up 6% at 56031 units. SML Isuzu saw 26.4% growth at 2094 units.

Oil marketing companies cut petrol and diesel price by Rs 3.77 and 2.91 a liter, marking the first change in rates in two-and-a-half months.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.2%-0.4% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points higher start for our market.

Just to reiterate, we have been working with target of 9218 after immediate hurdle of 9130 was taken out. The benchmark touched a high of 9192 but closed at 9174 and is set to open higher today.

9218, the top made on 17th March, continues to be immediate hurdle, upon decisive crossover of which, 9400-9420 would be the next major target to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 9115, with the stop-loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

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  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9115
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9115
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
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