NIFTY CONSOLIDATES AROUND 34-WMA HURDLE; MAY SPEECH IN FOCUS

NIFTY CONSOLIDATES AROUND 34-WMA HURDLE; MAY SPEECH IN FOCUS
WORLD MARKETS                             
US markets were shut yesterday on account of Martin Luther King Day.
European markets ended with cuts of 0.2%-1.4% ahead of British Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech on Brexit plans due today.
The British pound fell to three-month lows, following media reports that suggested May will announced a “clean” and “hard” Brexit, pulling the country from the European market and the European customs union, in exchange for the ability to control immigration laws and leave the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.
Euro zone exports rose in November, exceeding the number of imports by 25.9 billion euros ($27.6 billion).
AT HOME
After opening with cuts of about three tenth of a percent, benchmark indices saw a sustained northward journey through the session to end higher by about a fifth of a percent. Sensex settled at 27288, up 50 points while Nifty added 12 points to finish at 8413. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.3% and 0.6% respectively. BSE Realty index soared 1.6%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.03% rise in Finance index. IT and Teck indices were the top losers, down 1% and 0.8% respectively.
FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 347 cr, 119 cr and 200 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 203 cr.
Rupee appreciated 6 paise to end at 68.10/$.
India’s wholesale inflation rate grew 3.39% in December, marginally quicker than November’s 3.15%.
Reliance Industries reported 4.1% q-o-q rise in net profit at Rs 8022 cr, boosted by other income that grew sharply by 33% q-o-q to Rs 3025 cr. Revenue rose 3.5% to Rs 66606 cr. Gross refining margin stood at USD 10.80  barrel, up from 10.1 a barrel but were lower than the expected 11.50 mark.
IMF cut India’s growth forecast for current fiscal to 6.6%from 7.6% earlier due to the “temporary negative consumption shock” of demonetisation.
GST is likely to be rolled out from July 1 as the Centre and states reached an agreement over the two thorny issues of “dual control” and taxing rights of goods moved through high seas.
Under the agreed model, all assesses with an annual turnover of Rs 1.5 crore or below will be split on a 90:10 ratio between the states and the Centre. States would assess 90% of businesses with an annual turnover Rs 1.5 crore, while the Centre will assess the remaining 10%. Businesses with a turnover of more than Rs 1.5 crore will be split equally with the states assessing 50% of such traders and the Centre the remaining 50%.
The issues agreed upon on Monday will now be incorporated in the draft IGST, CGST and SGST laws. Once those drafts are approved by the council, respective legislative bodies (the Parliament and state Assemblies) will take these for approval.
OUTLOOK
Today morning, Hang Seng is flat, Nikkei and Shanghai are down about half a percent and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.
As we have been mentioning, Nifty has achieved the 34-week moving average target placed around 8435 and a decisive crossover of this hurdle is required for a fresh upmove. 8560, the 61.8% retracement level of the 8970-7893 fall, would be the next target if that happens.

Meanwhile, 8300 continues to be immediate support on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which trading longs should be held on to.
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STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9115

STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9115

WORLD MARKETS

Dow and S & P 500 fell 0.3% and 0.2% respectively while Nasdaq lost 0.04% on Friday.

Personal income rose 0.4% in February, in line with expectations, while consumer spending rose 0.1%, below an expected increase of 0.2%. The PCE price index — an indicator of inflation — rose 2.1% y-o-y, while core PCE increased 1.8%. The Chicago manufacturing PMI rose to 57.7 in March from 57.4 in February. Consumer sentiment hit 96.9 versus an expected read of 97.6.

European markets, except a 0.6% lower FTSE, gained 0.5%-0.6%. U.K. released its latest gross domestic product (GDP) figures which showed growth of 0.7 percent for the quarter and 1.9 percent compared to the year previous. The European Union published its draft of Brexit negotiating guidelines on Friday which showed the bloc is ready to discuss a potential free trade deal with Britain before the two sides have agreed on the final terms of the break-up.
U.S. President Trump said that the U.S. will take unilateral action to eliminate nuclear threats from North Korea, unless China, one of North Korea’s closest ally, intensifies pressure on it. These comments come ahead of a two-day meeting this week in Florida with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

For the week, US indices gained 0.3%-1.4%.  In Europe, FTSE fell 0.2% but DAX and CAC climbed 2% each. Asian markets ended in red with Nikkei down 1.8%, Shanghai off -1.4% and Hang Seng lower by 1%. Indian markets however gained 0.7%.

                                                             

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended little changed after a ragebound but choppy trade on the last day of the fiscal year. Sensex settled at 29620, down 27 points while Nifty ended absolutely flat at 9174. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however climbed 0.8% and 0.7% respectively. BSE Energy index soared 2.5%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.8% rise in Oil & Gas index. Telecom index and Bankex were the top losers, down 0.9% and 0.7% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 296 cr and 304 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 68 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1499 cr.

Rupee ended flat at 65.0950/$.
For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 0.7% each with Nifty closing at fresh record high on weekly basis.

For the fiscal 2017, Sensex and Nifty gained 16.9% and 18.6% respectively.

Government lowered interest rates on small saving schemes like PPF, Kisan Vikas Patra and Sukanya Samriddhi scheme by 0.1% for the April-June quarter.

The union cabinet on Friday approved changes to the companies and motor vehicle bills. It also fixed subsidy rates for phosphatic and potassic fertilisers and approved a plan to boost domestic urea production. Separately, the cabinet committee on economic affairs cleared changes to the Mega Power Policy.

The amended motor vehicle bill proposes a hefty penalty on auto companies caught manufacturing faulty vehicles, statuary guidelines for cab aggregators and a 10% annual increase in penalty for traffic violations.  The government has also proposed specific timelines for processing insurance claim.

Cabinet approved amendment to New Urea Policy-2015, allowing for production beyond the re-assessed capacity, which is expected to push domestic production of this key fertiliser. The subsidy for Phosphatic and Potassic nutrients has been lowered while that for Nitrogen and Sulphur has been raised.

The changes to the mega power policy will benefit 24 plants of 30,000-mw capacity to the tune of more than Rs 10,000 crore.
Maruti reported 8.1% rise in March sales at 1.39 lac units. Eicher Motors’s Royeal Enfield sales were up 17% at 60113 units and CV sales rose 8.5% to 7327 units. M & M tractor sales were up 32% at 19337 units while total sales were up 6% at 56031 units. SML Isuzu saw 26.4% growth at 2094 units.

Oil marketing companies cut petrol and diesel price by Rs 3.77 and 2.91 a liter, marking the first change in rates in two-and-a-half months.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.2%-0.4% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points higher start for our market.

Just to reiterate, we have been working with target of 9218 after immediate hurdle of 9130 was taken out. The benchmark touched a high of 9192 but closed at 9174 and is set to open higher today.

9218, the top made on 17th March, continues to be immediate hurdle, upon decisive crossover of which, 9400-9420 would be the next major target to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 9115, with the stop-loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

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  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9115
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9115
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
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