NIFTY ACHIEVES 20,34 WEEK AVERAGE TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 8300

NIFTY ACHIEVES 20,34 WEEK AVERAGE TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 8300
WORLD MARKETS                             
While Dow ended flat, S & P 500 and Nasdaq gained 0.2% and 0.5% respectively on Friday, after digesting strong quarterly earnings from U.S. banks and several pieces of economic data.
JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and PNC Financial all reported better-than-expected profits, but only JPMorgan exceeded revenue estimates. Wells Fargo disappointed slightly and posted a decrease in earnings.
U.S. wholesale prices rose 0.3% in December, led higher by more expensive gas, food and cars. The producer price index increased 1.6%. December retail sales rose 0.6%. December consumer sentiment came in slightly below estimates and business inventories rose 0.7% in November.
U.S. Treasuries fell with the benchmark 10-year note yield rising to 2.393%, while the two-year note yield advanced to 1.197%. The U.S. dollar rose slightly. Gold fell $4 to $1196 per ounce.
Earlier data from China showed exports dropped 6.1% and imports rose 3.1%, leaving a lower trade balance of USD 40.81 bn compared to 44.61 bn in previous month.
European markets climbed 0.6%-1.9%.
For the week, Dow and S & P 500 fell 0.4% and 0.1% respectively but Nasdaq was up 1%. FTSE soared 1.8% while DAX and CAC were up 0.3% each. In Asia, Hang Seng was up 1.9% but Nikkei and Shanghai lost 0.9% and 1.3% respectively.
AT HOME
Benchmark indices ended marginally lower after a rangebound but choppy trade, consolidating after hefty gains made in past three sessions. Sensex settled at 27238, down 9 points while Nifty lost 7 points to finish at 8400. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices were also little changed. BSE IT and Teck indices tumbled 1.9% and 1.7% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while FMCG index climbed 1.2%, becoming top gainer, followed by 0.6% higher Finance index.
FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 118 cr and 172 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 91 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 474 cr.
Rupee depreciated 7 paise to end at 68.15/$.
For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 1.8% and 1.9% respectively, extending the winning streak to third straight week.
Infosys delivered mixed set of earnings and lowered full year dollar as well as rupee revenue guidance. Dollar revenue slipped 1.4% q-o-q to USD 2531 mn and rupee revenue declined 0.2% to Rs 17273 cr. Dollar revenue in constant currency fell 0.3%. Net profit rose 2.8% to Rs 3708 cr. The company tightened its constant currency revenue guidance to 8.4-8.8% from 8-9% earlier. Full year dollar revenue guidance was lowered to 7.2-7.6% from 7.5-8.5% and rupee revenue guidance to 10-10.4% from 10.9-11.9%.
India’s trade deficit narrowed to $10.3 billion in December from $13 bn in November as exports rose 5.7% y-o-y to $23.88 bn while imports remained flat at $34.25 bn.
Oil Marketing Companies hiked petrol and diesel price by 42 paise and Rs 1.03 per litre respectively.
To bring down the overall cost of transaction in the stock market, markets regulator Sebi on Saturday reduced its turnover fees by 25% to Rs 15 per Rs 1 crore worth of turnover from Rs 20 earlier. It also allowed mutual fund (MF) companies to invest in hybrid instruments such as Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Infrastructure Investment Trusts (InvITs). The regulator, however, has put certain conditions on mutual funds for such investments.
OUTLOOK
British pound fell more than 1% to about $1.2043 after media reports suggested Prime Minister Theresa May’s government was prepared to make a “hard” or “clean” exit from the European Union, ahead of her speech Tuesday.
Today morning Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.3%-1% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 25 points lower start for our market.
After Nifty achieved 8275 target, we had been working with next major target of 8400-8450 where 20 as well as 34-week moing averages were placed. The benchmark touched a high of 8461 before closing at 8400, achieving the targets mentioned above and vindicating our view.
8430-8440 is the region where these two averages are placed currently. A decisive crossover of this region would be required for a fresh upmove.
Meanwhile, immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 8300, with the stop-loss of which existing longs can be held on to.
Reliance Industries will report its quarterly earnings today. Net profit is expected to rise 1.9% q-o-q to Rs 7850 cr. Gross Refining Margins is expected at $11.5 per barrel, up from $10.10.

The GST Council will meet for the ninth time today with the issue of dual control being the single biggest issue on agenda. The council has been deadlocked in the last four meetings, the last one being on January 4, with states seeking sole powers to control assesses with annual turnover of up to Rs 1.5 crore. Centre, however, is not in favor of a horizontal split as it feels states do not have the expertise to administer levies like service tax. Jaitley is also not favour of dual agencies auditing and scrutinizing each taxpayer as he reckons multiple authorities could end up acting at cross-purposes.
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STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9115

STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9115

WORLD MARKETS

Dow and S & P 500 fell 0.3% and 0.2% respectively while Nasdaq lost 0.04% on Friday.

Personal income rose 0.4% in February, in line with expectations, while consumer spending rose 0.1%, below an expected increase of 0.2%. The PCE price index — an indicator of inflation — rose 2.1% y-o-y, while core PCE increased 1.8%. The Chicago manufacturing PMI rose to 57.7 in March from 57.4 in February. Consumer sentiment hit 96.9 versus an expected read of 97.6.

European markets, except a 0.6% lower FTSE, gained 0.5%-0.6%. U.K. released its latest gross domestic product (GDP) figures which showed growth of 0.7 percent for the quarter and 1.9 percent compared to the year previous. The European Union published its draft of Brexit negotiating guidelines on Friday which showed the bloc is ready to discuss a potential free trade deal with Britain before the two sides have agreed on the final terms of the break-up.
U.S. President Trump said that the U.S. will take unilateral action to eliminate nuclear threats from North Korea, unless China, one of North Korea’s closest ally, intensifies pressure on it. These comments come ahead of a two-day meeting this week in Florida with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

For the week, US indices gained 0.3%-1.4%.  In Europe, FTSE fell 0.2% but DAX and CAC climbed 2% each. Asian markets ended in red with Nikkei down 1.8%, Shanghai off -1.4% and Hang Seng lower by 1%. Indian markets however gained 0.7%.

                                                             

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended little changed after a ragebound but choppy trade on the last day of the fiscal year. Sensex settled at 29620, down 27 points while Nifty ended absolutely flat at 9174. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however climbed 0.8% and 0.7% respectively. BSE Energy index soared 2.5%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.8% rise in Oil & Gas index. Telecom index and Bankex were the top losers, down 0.9% and 0.7% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 296 cr and 304 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 68 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1499 cr.

Rupee ended flat at 65.0950/$.
For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 0.7% each with Nifty closing at fresh record high on weekly basis.

For the fiscal 2017, Sensex and Nifty gained 16.9% and 18.6% respectively.

Government lowered interest rates on small saving schemes like PPF, Kisan Vikas Patra and Sukanya Samriddhi scheme by 0.1% for the April-June quarter.

The union cabinet on Friday approved changes to the companies and motor vehicle bills. It also fixed subsidy rates for phosphatic and potassic fertilisers and approved a plan to boost domestic urea production. Separately, the cabinet committee on economic affairs cleared changes to the Mega Power Policy.

The amended motor vehicle bill proposes a hefty penalty on auto companies caught manufacturing faulty vehicles, statuary guidelines for cab aggregators and a 10% annual increase in penalty for traffic violations.  The government has also proposed specific timelines for processing insurance claim.

Cabinet approved amendment to New Urea Policy-2015, allowing for production beyond the re-assessed capacity, which is expected to push domestic production of this key fertiliser. The subsidy for Phosphatic and Potassic nutrients has been lowered while that for Nitrogen and Sulphur has been raised.

The changes to the mega power policy will benefit 24 plants of 30,000-mw capacity to the tune of more than Rs 10,000 crore.
Maruti reported 8.1% rise in March sales at 1.39 lac units. Eicher Motors’s Royeal Enfield sales were up 17% at 60113 units and CV sales rose 8.5% to 7327 units. M & M tractor sales were up 32% at 19337 units while total sales were up 6% at 56031 units. SML Isuzu saw 26.4% growth at 2094 units.

Oil marketing companies cut petrol and diesel price by Rs 3.77 and 2.91 a liter, marking the first change in rates in two-and-a-half months.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.2%-0.4% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points higher start for our market.

Just to reiterate, we have been working with target of 9218 after immediate hurdle of 9130 was taken out. The benchmark touched a high of 9192 but closed at 9174 and is set to open higher today.

9218, the top made on 17th March, continues to be immediate hurdle, upon decisive crossover of which, 9400-9420 would be the next major target to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 9115, with the stop-loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

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  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9115
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9115
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
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