INDIA FIRST MILESTONE ACHIEVED, 10460 NEXT

Outlook – India at sweet spot

INDIA FIRST MILESTONE ACHIEVED, 10460 (Nifty) NEXT

India has hugely outperformed its peer in recent time. The entire BRIC nation, except India, is facing its problem & global analysts feel that the Indian market is sweetly placed in global Equity Market from both fundamental & technical perspective. Indian Government led by Mr Narendra Modi have strong mandate to push the reform which will focus on Economic growth and governance ( or read it asefficiency

Nifty Long term technical Outlook

Bull Run in India which started in 2003 is still intact. After first 5 years of rally (2003-2008), the market was in consolidation for 5 years and given breakout in the year 2014. India market has broken out after a solid & long consolidation of five years.  After making a high of 6357 in 2008, Nifty (its benchmark indices) made a low of 2252 in October 2008.  After that, benchmark rebounded back to 6338 in November 2010 and made a double top and again fell to 4531 in December 2011.

  • The triangle of 6338-4531 range projects a medium term target above 8150. This we thought will be achieved over next two years, but due to improvement in macro outlook, strong political mandate has happened very fast & achieved within a year.
  • For Longer term, if one takes the triangle formed by 6357-2252 range, the target comes around 10460 , which can materialize over next 4-5 years.

Nifty Long term pattern – validated our view

  • Last year during this time we told that  “MAJOR UPTREND INTACT, MEGA BREAKOUT IN MAKING”.  we had said that a crossover of 6357 would confirm a major breakout from a long-long consolidation of nearly six years, which in turn would project major upmove over next couple of years. We had also indicated that the triangle formed by 6338-4531 range gives an upside level of 8150 which would be the first major target while the triangle formed by 6357-2252 range gives a level of 10460 which would be the next major upside level to eye.   

      

  • Nifty, after consolidating for the first few months after our report was out , finally took out 6357 hurdle in March 2014 and surged all the way to 8180 in September, achieving the first major target of 8150.Having achieved the first milestone of 8150, Nifty is now set to move towards the next big target of 10460.However, the move from 6357 to 8180 was quite rapid and hence the benchmark might consolidate for some time before decisively resuming the uptrend.

On the way down, 6357, the erstwhile resistance, would now act as a major long term  support for Nifty. Until the breach of which, the long term trend will continue to be bullish. In the light of above observations, investor are advised to hold on to long positions and take any possible dip as a buying opportunity for the next big target of 10460, keeping a stop loss of 6357.

For international reader, please note that Nifty is a National Stock Exchange (NSE) indices & its a barometer of Indian Economy. We will also update our fundamental view & sector specific view in few days. We are bullish on Banking stocks from longer term perspective. Your comment on the above analysis is truely welcome & Can be send to bonpriya@gmail.com.

Nifty Long term pattern 

Other Article one should read

http://ifreepress.com/businessfinance/india-is-sweetly-placed-amongst-bric-nation

http://ifreepress.com/businessfinance/landmark-unprecedented-election-verdict-boost-indian-stock

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