8000 CONTINUES TO BE CRUCIAL SUPPORT; 8385 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

8000 CONTINUES TO BE CRUCIAL SUPPORT; 8385 IMMEDIATE HURDLE
WORLD MARKETS                             
US indices gained between 0.3%-1.1% as energy stocks rallied sharply and technology rebounded after a post-election sell-off. Dow extended the winning streak to seventh day and notched a new all-time closing high.
US crude rose 5.8% to $45.81 per barrel amid renewed hopes that OPEC would agree to a production cut. Brent settled at $46.98, up 5.7%.
US retail sales rose 0.8% in October while import prices rose 0.5%, both beating expectations. The November read on the New York manufacturing index also came in above estimates.
Goldman Sachs raised its third-quarter and fourth-quarter US GDP estimates by two tenths each, to 3.2% and 2.6%, respectively.
European markets gained 0.3%-0.6%. Euro zone third-quarter gross domestic product rose 1.6% year-on-year, and 0.3% quarter-on-quarter.
AT HOME
New week began on a weak note as Sensex and Nifty nosedived 1.9% and 2.3% respectively to close at the lowest level since 25th May and 27th June respectively. Sensex lost 514 points to settle at 26305 and Nifty finished at 8108, down 188 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 3.9% and 4.7% respectively. Except a 0.3% higher IT index, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Basic Material index leading the tally, down 5.7%, followed by 5.1% each cut in Realty and Auto indices.
FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 2354 cr, 1356 cr and 1013 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 105 cr.
Rupee depreciated 49 paise to end at $67.74.
India’s wholesale inflation rose to 3.39% in October year-on-year, marginally lower than the previous month’s 3.57%. Retail inflation fell to a 14-month low of 4.20% in October, down from 4.39% in September.
India’s trade deficit in October widened to USD 10.16 billion compared with USD 8.34 billion in the previous month as gold imports more than doubled to USD 3.5 billion from a year ago. Merchandise exports grew 9.6% year-on-year to USD 23.5 billion, while imports expanded 8.11% to USD 33.67 billion.
Oil marketing companies cut petrol and diesel price by Rs 1.46 and Rs 1.53 per litre respectively.
OUTLOOK
Today morning, except a marginally lower Shanghai, other Asian markets are trading with gains of upto 0.9% with Nikkei on the top. SGX Nifty is suggesting bout 70 points higher start for our market.
In yesterday’s report we had mentioned that 8230, the 61.8% retracement level of the recent 8000-8600 pullback, would be the immediate support to eye, a sustained trading below which would open up the possibility of the retest of 8000 bottom.
The benchmark broke 8230 support in the initial trade itself and plunged all the way to 8093 before closing at 8108.
As mentioned in yesterday’s report, 8000 which coincides with 34-month moving average, continues to be a crucial support to eye. Immediate resistance on the hourly chart has moved lower to 8385 above which 8600 would be the bigger hurdle to eye.

Winter session of the Parliament starts today and promises to be a stormy one owing to issues related to demonetization, OROP and surgical strike across LOC.
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STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9115

STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9115

WORLD MARKETS

Dow and S & P 500 fell 0.3% and 0.2% respectively while Nasdaq lost 0.04% on Friday.

Personal income rose 0.4% in February, in line with expectations, while consumer spending rose 0.1%, below an expected increase of 0.2%. The PCE price index — an indicator of inflation — rose 2.1% y-o-y, while core PCE increased 1.8%. The Chicago manufacturing PMI rose to 57.7 in March from 57.4 in February. Consumer sentiment hit 96.9 versus an expected read of 97.6.

European markets, except a 0.6% lower FTSE, gained 0.5%-0.6%. U.K. released its latest gross domestic product (GDP) figures which showed growth of 0.7 percent for the quarter and 1.9 percent compared to the year previous. The European Union published its draft of Brexit negotiating guidelines on Friday which showed the bloc is ready to discuss a potential free trade deal with Britain before the two sides have agreed on the final terms of the break-up.
U.S. President Trump said that the U.S. will take unilateral action to eliminate nuclear threats from North Korea, unless China, one of North Korea’s closest ally, intensifies pressure on it. These comments come ahead of a two-day meeting this week in Florida with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

For the week, US indices gained 0.3%-1.4%.  In Europe, FTSE fell 0.2% but DAX and CAC climbed 2% each. Asian markets ended in red with Nikkei down 1.8%, Shanghai off -1.4% and Hang Seng lower by 1%. Indian markets however gained 0.7%.

                                                             

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended little changed after a ragebound but choppy trade on the last day of the fiscal year. Sensex settled at 29620, down 27 points while Nifty ended absolutely flat at 9174. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however climbed 0.8% and 0.7% respectively. BSE Energy index soared 2.5%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.8% rise in Oil & Gas index. Telecom index and Bankex were the top losers, down 0.9% and 0.7% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 296 cr and 304 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 68 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1499 cr.

Rupee ended flat at 65.0950/$.
For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 0.7% each with Nifty closing at fresh record high on weekly basis.

For the fiscal 2017, Sensex and Nifty gained 16.9% and 18.6% respectively.

Government lowered interest rates on small saving schemes like PPF, Kisan Vikas Patra and Sukanya Samriddhi scheme by 0.1% for the April-June quarter.

The union cabinet on Friday approved changes to the companies and motor vehicle bills. It also fixed subsidy rates for phosphatic and potassic fertilisers and approved a plan to boost domestic urea production. Separately, the cabinet committee on economic affairs cleared changes to the Mega Power Policy.

The amended motor vehicle bill proposes a hefty penalty on auto companies caught manufacturing faulty vehicles, statuary guidelines for cab aggregators and a 10% annual increase in penalty for traffic violations.  The government has also proposed specific timelines for processing insurance claim.

Cabinet approved amendment to New Urea Policy-2015, allowing for production beyond the re-assessed capacity, which is expected to push domestic production of this key fertiliser. The subsidy for Phosphatic and Potassic nutrients has been lowered while that for Nitrogen and Sulphur has been raised.

The changes to the mega power policy will benefit 24 plants of 30,000-mw capacity to the tune of more than Rs 10,000 crore.
Maruti reported 8.1% rise in March sales at 1.39 lac units. Eicher Motors’s Royeal Enfield sales were up 17% at 60113 units and CV sales rose 8.5% to 7327 units. M & M tractor sales were up 32% at 19337 units while total sales were up 6% at 56031 units. SML Isuzu saw 26.4% growth at 2094 units.

Oil marketing companies cut petrol and diesel price by Rs 3.77 and 2.91 a liter, marking the first change in rates in two-and-a-half months.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.2%-0.4% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points higher start for our market.

Just to reiterate, we have been working with target of 9218 after immediate hurdle of 9130 was taken out. The benchmark touched a high of 9192 but closed at 9174 and is set to open higher today.

9218, the top made on 17th March, continues to be immediate hurdle, upon decisive crossover of which, 9400-9420 would be the next major target to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 9115, with the stop-loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

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  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9115
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9115
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
  • STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9110
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